In October and November, the U.S. economy seems to have regained some momentum. In late summer, however, the U.S. economy hit the brakes. Against the backdrop of problems with international supply chains and higher Corona infection numbers, economic output increased only slightly by 0.5 percent in the third quarter. Even though GDP is expected to grow faster again at the end of the year, the coming months will remain difficult. There are increased uncertainties surrounding the new Omicron mutation. Recently, however, the situation on the labor market has improved more rapidly than in the summer (although there are various measurement issues concerning the labor market). This year, I expect the U.S. economy to grow by 5.7 percent. For 2022 and 2023, I then expect growth rates of 3.8 and 2.6 percent. Inflation will probably average more than 5 percent in 2021 and might be well over three percent next year. Is this the new normal? Moderate growth with somewhat higher inflation?
In the United States, gross domestic product in the third quarter of the current year increased by only an annualized 2.1 percent compared with the previous quarter. Although economic output had already returned to pre-pandemic levels by the summer, momentum has slowed considerably compared with the first half of the year. Against the backdrop of problems with international supply chains and higher Corona infection rates, private consumption in particular increased only slightly. Business investment also increased only moderately.
The economy is expected to pick up again in the fourth quarter, although the pandemic is still there and there are increased uncertainties surrounding the new Omicron mutation. Corona case numbers have recently fallen again, although there are likely to be repeated increases in the coming months. The fiscal packages passed in December and March, as well as savings from the lockdown periods, continue to support private consumption.
The purchasing manager indices from the Institute for Supply Management and IHS Markit were recently still well above the expansion threshold of 50 index points, but have not reached the highs of early summer. The picture is similar for consumer sentiment. Consumers are less optimistic than in the summer. In particular, higher inflation is worrying many people.
The fiscal packages adopted in December and March are still having a stimulating effect. With a volume of around 13 percent of GDP, they have injected a great deal of liquid funds into households – in particular via one-off payments and the temporary increase in unemployment benefits until September. Even if the stimulating effect of the fiscal packages is now gradually fading, consumer demand is likely to remain the main driver of growth in the US economy in the coming quarters. In the course of 2022 and 2023, growth in private consumer spending will then gradually weaken. The recovery of the US economy will also continue to improve the situation on the labor market. The unemployment rate in November was only 4.2 percent, down from 6.9 in October 2020 and 14.7 percent in April 2020. The steady, but somewhat bumpy recovery can also be seen in solid growth rates of jobs. Since the start of the pandemic, however, measurement problems are particularly strong when assessing the labor market. It is expected that further fiscal packages will be adopted by the end of the year, but these will be mainly medium-term oriented and include spending on infrastructure, renewable energy sources and education and social purposes.
Monetary policy remains expansionary – also because the central bank is temporarily accepting higher inflation due to its revised monetary policy strategy. In the current year, inflation is likely to average more than 5 percent. Even after the gradual fading of some temporary influences, inflation is likely to remain well above the medium-term inflation target of two percent in 2022, given continued dynamic domestic demand and international supply chain disruptions.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. Federal Reserve started to gradually make its monetary policy less expansionary in November and December. This initially involves a gradual reduction in monthly securities purchases. This process is expected to be completed by March 2022. The first key interest rate increases are expected in summer 2022. All in all, the U.S. economy is likely to expand by 5.7 percent in the current year, which is somewhat less than I had recently expected. In 2022 and 2023, economic growth rates are likely to be 3.8 and 2.6 percent. Inflation is likely to average more than 5 percent in 2021 and is also likely to be above three percent in the coming year.
Some of my blog posts and economic forecasts are first reserved to my paying subscribers. After two weeks, all articles are publicly available. If you would like to get instantaneous access, you can subscribe for 5 US dollars per month (or the equivalent amount in your currency). You can unsubscribe at any time: