Global economy faces a difficult winter half-year

The global economy expanded solidly in the second quarter of 2023, but without much momentum. I expect Europe – especially Germany and the United Kingdom – to experience a recession in the winter half-year.

What caught my eye: The labor market then and now, central bank interest rates, you need quiet time, and much more…

“The US labor market has experienced significant changes since the turn of the century.”

What caught my eye: Decoupling of monetary policy, roots of progress, Oppenheimer, and much more…

“Oppenheimer, Einstein, von Neumann and other Institute faculty channeled much of their effort toward what AI researchers today call the “alignment” problem: how to make sure our discoveries serve us instead of destroying us.”

Economy in the euro area sputters

The economy in the euro area is stagnating. Gross domestic product fell slightly in the winter half-year, by 0.1 percent in both the final quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. Private consumption in particular is weakening.

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