The global economy expanded solidly in the second quarter of 2023, but without much momentum. I expect Europe – especially Germany and the United Kingdom – to experience a recession in the winter half-year.
Category Archives: Euro Area
German economy: The recession is coming
I expect the German economy to contract by 0,7 percent in 2023.
German economy still unable to find its way out of stagnation
The German economy cannot find its way out of stagnation.
Economy in the euro area sputters
The economy in the euro area is stagnating. Gross domestic product fell slightly in the winter half-year, by 0.1 percent in both the final quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. Private consumption in particular is weakening.
German economy weakening
There are growing signs that the German economy will not really return to growth. In the winter half-year, Germany has already slipped into recession and there is no upturn in sight. Unfortunately, rather the opposite.
German economy faces fragile and sluggish recovery
After the German economy experienced a small interim low in the winter half-year, the hoped-for upturn is likely to begin in the current second quarter. The upturn is likely to be tentative and fragile, at least for the time being.
Global economy faces sluggish recovery
The global economy will recover only sluggishly this year with growth of 2.8 percent and next year of 3.4 percent, especially as no tailwind is expected from monetary and fiscal policy.
German economy is in recession
Germany’s gross domestic product shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter. However, a severe winter recession, which was feared in the autumn, has become less likely. Nevertheless, the risks to the economy remain high. I am somewhat more pessimistic regarding economic growth in 2023 than some of my colleagues.
German economy gets off lightly in the short term
Germany’s gross domestic product shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter. However, a severe winter recession, which was feared in the autumn, has become less likely. Nevertheless, the risks to the economy remain high. I am somewhat more pessimistic regarding economic growth in 2023 than some of my colleagues.
The German economy may experience a mild recession, but a severe one can still not be excluded
The German economy is proving remarkably robust under challenging conditions, even though the economic situation remains gloomy.