Fiscal relief and stimulus measures will lead to strong economic growth in 2021. The U.S. economy started this year with momentum. In addition to the fiscal stimulus measures, the U.S. vaccination program has evolved very well and is likely to have increased confidence that the pandemic will gradually subside in the current year.
What is inflation?
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In many countries, inflation increased in the spring – especially in April. While there is no need to panic, one should nevertheless be aware of potential inflation risks.
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Fiscal relief and stimulus measures will lead to strong economic growth in 2021. In addition, the U.S. vaccination program has started well and is likely to have increased confidence that the pandemic will gradually subside in the current year. The very expansionary fiscal policy and the gradual easing of the containment measures will massively stimulate private consumption this year. In addition, many households accumulated savings last year which will be partly used for private consumption this year. I am optimistic for the U.S. economy and expect a GDP growth rate of around eight percent this year (the consensus still seems to be below 7 percent). Inflation will increase this year to around three percent, but will decrease again in 2022 to around two percent. In the medium-term, I expect somewhat higher inflation rates than in the pre-pandemic period of time.
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