Global economy faces a difficult winter half-year

The global economy expanded solidly in the second quarter of 2023, but without much momentum. I expect Europe – especially Germany and the United Kingdom – to experience a recession in the winter half-year.

What caught my eye: The labor market then and now, central bank interest rates, you need quiet time, and much more…

“The US labor market has experienced significant changes since the turn of the century.”

What caught my eye: Decoupling of monetary policy, roots of progress, Oppenheimer, and much more…

“Oppenheimer, Einstein, von Neumann and other Institute faculty channeled much of their effort toward what AI researchers today call the “alignment” problem: how to make sure our discoveries serve us instead of destroying us.”

U.S. Economy: Banking crisis will lead to contraction of the economy

The U.S. economy is in turmoil and exposed to high risks. The banking stress, the debate about raising the debt ceiling, higher interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and the weakening global economy are likely to lead to a recession this year.

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