The global economy expanded solidly in the second quarter of 2023, but without much momentum. I expect Europe – especially Germany and the United Kingdom – to experience a recession in the winter half-year.
Category Archives: U.S. Economy
What caught my eye: All published blockchain papers, US manufacturing jobs, career transitions, lessons from past inflation episodes, and much more…
“Reality Check on US Manufacturing Jobs”
What caught my eye: The labor market then and now, central bank interest rates, you need quiet time, and much more…
“The US labor market has experienced significant changes since the turn of the century.”
What caught my eye: Intangible investment and monetary policy, Robert Triffin, and much more…
“Unpacking the Causes of Pandemic-Era Inflation in the US”
U.S. Economy: robust so far, but cooling ahead
The economic engine is now likely to stutter somewhat.
What caught my eye: Decoupling of monetary policy, roots of progress, Oppenheimer, and much more…
“Oppenheimer, Einstein, von Neumann and other Institute faculty channeled much of their effort toward what AI researchers today call the “alignment” problem: how to make sure our discoveries serve us instead of destroying us.”
U.S. Economy: Still solid for the moment, but the slowdown will come
The economic engine is now likely to stutter somewhat.
Debt dispute over, but: the US economy will cease to be a global economic engine for now
The US politicians have once again made things exciting.
What caught my eye: Financial stability and interest rates, geopolitical swing states, the U.S. banking crisis of 2023, and much more…
The US banking crisis of 2023
U.S. Economy: Banking crisis will lead to contraction of the economy
The U.S. economy is in turmoil and exposed to high risks. The banking stress, the debate about raising the debt ceiling, higher interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and the weakening global economy are likely to lead to a recession this year.