The global economy expanded solidly in the second quarter of 2023, but without much momentum. I expect Europe – especially Germany and the United Kingdom – to experience a recession in the winter half-year.
The economy in the euro area is stagnating. Gross domestic product fell slightly in the winter half-year, by 0.1 percent in both the final quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. Private consumption in particular is weakening.
The global economy will recover only sluggishly this year with growth of 2.8 percent and next year of 3.4 percent, especially as no tailwind is expected from monetary and fiscal policy.
After the midterm elections in the U.S., there is hardly any time to take a deep breath on the political level.
The global economy is being hit hard by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting surge in energy prices.
Against the backdrop of the omicron wave and continuing problems with international supply chains, the global economy lost further momentum at the beginning of the year.
In July of this year, the European Central Bank published the results of its monetary policy strategy review.