Global economy faces a difficult winter half-year

The global economy expanded solidly in the second quarter of 2023, but without much momentum. I expect Europe – especially Germany and the United Kingdom – to experience a recession in the winter half-year.

Economy in the euro area sputters

The economy in the euro area is stagnating. Gross domestic product fell slightly in the winter half-year, by 0.1 percent in both the final quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. Private consumption in particular is weakening.

Global economy faces sluggish recovery

The global economy will recover only sluggishly this year with growth of 2.8 percent and next year of 3.4 percent, especially as no tailwind is expected from monetary and fiscal policy.

Political paralysis in the United States likely – also a problem for Europe?

After the midterm elections in the U.S., there is hardly any time to take a deep breath on the political level.

Further wave of pandemic delays recovery of the global economy

Against the backdrop of the omicron wave and continuing problems with international supply chains, the global economy lost further momentum at the beginning of the year.

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