The global economy expanded solidly in the second quarter of 2023, but without much momentum. I expect Europe – especially Germany and the United Kingdom – to experience a recession in the winter half-year.
Tag Archives: inflation
German economy: The recession is coming
I expect the German economy to contract by 0,7 percent in 2023.
U.S. Economy: robust so far, but cooling ahead
The economic engine is now likely to stutter somewhat.
German economy still unable to find its way out of stagnation
The German economy cannot find its way out of stagnation.
U.S. Economy: Still solid for the moment, but the slowdown will come
The economic engine is now likely to stutter somewhat.
Economy in the euro area sputters
The economy in the euro area is stagnating. Gross domestic product fell slightly in the winter half-year, by 0.1 percent in both the final quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. Private consumption in particular is weakening.
German economy weakening
There are growing signs that the German economy will not really return to growth. In the winter half-year, Germany has already slipped into recession and there is no upturn in sight. Unfortunately, rather the opposite.
Debt dispute over, but: the US economy will cease to be a global economic engine for now
The US politicians have once again made things exciting.
U.S. Economy: Banking crisis will lead to contraction of the economy
The U.S. economy is in turmoil and exposed to high risks. The banking stress, the debate about raising the debt ceiling, higher interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and the weakening global economy are likely to lead to a recession this year.
German economy faces fragile and sluggish recovery
After the German economy experienced a small interim low in the winter half-year, the hoped-for upturn is likely to begin in the current second quarter. The upturn is likely to be tentative and fragile, at least for the time being.