Author Archives: EBECON

The US economy is currently experiencing significant challenges. Despite these challenges, it has performed surprisingly well given the high uncertainty regarding tariff policies, and also actually higher tariffs. However, we expect what we call a mild stagflationary episode, in which meager economic growth and somewhat elevated inflation will occur together. Due to the shutdown in the U.S.,Continue reading “US Economy – Surprisingly robust, but the labor market has cooled”

Highly recommended! “Knowledge, technology, and growth: Joel Mokyr, Nobel laureate” by Ran Abramitzky and Mauricio Drelichman. “One core message of this extensive body of research is particularly timely: economic progress is critically dependent on open intellectual inquiry, on the free exchange of ideas, and on a vigorous defence of scientific principles.” Highly interesting (and potentiallyContinue reading “What caught my eye: Knowledge and growth, factories of ideas, and much more…”

Average annual GDP growth will be modest in 2025 and 2026.

“Unbalanced Trade 2.0” by Alejandro Cuñat and Robert Zymek. “Do trade imbalances boost incomes in surplus economies at the expense of deficit economies? We show that the answer is yes in an important subclass of quantitative trade models. This is the consequence of scale economies concentrated in the traded sector. A rise in net exports causesContinue reading “What caught my eye: Uncertainty and risks in monetary policy, a research agenda for the economics of transformative AI, and much more…”