What caught my eye: Climate resilience, eurobonds, the future of globalization, and much more…

World Economic Forum — From Silk Roads to Supply Chains is today’s most useful short citation because it links the history of Asian integration to the practical question of how firms should redesign supply chains under geopolitical pressure.

“Connectivity endured because networks adapted to changing circumstances, not because exchange was inevitable.”

VoxEU — Resilience Is a Network Property: Europe’s Integration Test for 2050

CEPR / VoxEU | Policy column | July 23, 2026

The column argues that resilience depends on the depth, diversity and quality of economic connections rather than the number of links severed in pursuit of self-sufficiency. For Europe, the implication is deeper capital markets, diversified supply chains and differentiated integration with strategic neighbors. De-risking should mean rewiring concentrated exposure, not retreating into costly autarky.

World Economic Forum — Climate Resilience Can Help Cities and Businesses Grow

World Economic Forum | Urban resilience analysis | July 28, 2026

Climate resilience is becoming a location factor for capital, supply chains and skilled workers. Research covering 1,500 cities finds that protective infrastructure, water systems, cooling, liveability and public-private finance can improve business attractiveness; 45% of surveyed CEOs are considering supply-chain reconfiguration. Adaptation spending increasingly functions as competitiveness policy.

China Economy Flash July 2026

Who is Afraid of Eurobonds?

NBER Working Paper 35510 (Bianchi, Fang, Melosi, Rogantini Picco) | Working paper | 27 July 2026

A concrete institutional proposal at a moment when euro-area fiscal space is under strain. The authors argue that the current framework “conflates short-run stabilization with long-run fiscal sustainability, exposing members to deflationary and inflationary tail risks.” Their alternative separates the two: “A centralized Treasury issues Eurobonds to finance countercyclical stabilization, while national governments retain responsibility for long-term fiscal sustainability.” In their estimated model the arrangement “functions as an automatic stabilizer, eliminating the tail risks of deflation and fiscal stagflation”, with no need to suspend national fiscal rules in a downturn.

Branko Milanovic on What Comes After Globalization

Bloomberg Odd Lots (Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway) | Podcast, ~61 min | 27 July 2026

Milanovic supplies the missing label for the current era. Globalisation has visibly fallen out of favour, but naming what replaces it has proved harder; his term is “national market liberalism” — market mechanisms retained, but organised around national rather than global objectives. The conversation draws on his new book on the United States, China and the remaking of the world economic order, and pairs directly with the two VoxEU columns above (items 13 and 14) on what institutional form a fragmented order might take.

Chartbook 461: Polycrisis & nostalgia for lost futures

Chartbook, Adam Tooze | Newsletter | 26 July 2026

Tooze returns to the concept he popularised, prompted by a workshop run by the Centre for Strategic Futures inside Singapore’s Prime Minister’s Office, where he was asked to open on “Polycrisis, the past, the present and the future.” The framing questions are the substance: how the present moment of polycrisis should “recast our understanding of the past”, and “what role does memory play in shaping our understanding of the present, and who we perceive to be friend or foe”. A useful counterweight to the forecast-driven material elsewhere in this overview.

What caught my eye: U.S. monetary policy, global electricity demand, and much more…

U.S. monetary policy: The Fed is expected to keep interest rates constant on July 29


PIIE — El Niño Could Drag Down the Global Economy by Almost $700 Billion—or $3 Trillion

Peterson Institute for International Economics | Blog | July 20, 2026

The analysis estimates a first-year global loss of about $686 billion and a five-year loss of roughly $3.1 trillion from a severe El Niño. The largest proportional effects fall on lower- and middle-income economies through harvest failures, food imports, damaged infrastructure and lost investment. Pre-positioned concessional finance and food aid would turn climate preparedness into macroeconomic stabilization.


IEA — Global Electricity Demand Growth Set to Accelerate

International Energy Agency | Electricity Mid-Year Update | July 23, 2026

The IEA forecasts electricity-demand growth of 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027, driven by industry, cooling, electric vehicles and data centers. Renewables are set to overtake coal as the largest global source of generation in 2026, yet high LNG prices have also encouraged coal switching. More frequent negative prices and wider intraday swings reveal an urgent need for storage, grids and demand flexibility.


Reaction to U.S. Tariffs on 60 Trading Partners

Reuters | July 24, 2026

Officials from Europe, Australia, Brazil, Mexico and Southeast Asia responded differently to the new U.S. tariffs, reflecting varying exposure, exemptions and prior agreements. Brazil signaled possible recourse to domestic retaliation instruments and the WTO, while others emphasized negotiation. A common concern is that legal and policy uncertainty itself discourages trade and investment.

IMF Blog — The Oil Market Absorbed the War Shock, but Buffers Are Running Low

International Monetary Fund | Blog | July 15, 2026

Oil-market flexibility, inventories and policy action helped absorb an abrupt disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but those buffers are being depleted. The analysis turns a geopolitical event into a medium-term macro question: prolonged prices near $90–100 would transmit through inflation, external balances and fiscal costs, especially in energy-importing economies.


S&P Global — Flash PMIs Signal Faster Growth Across Major Developed Economies

S&P Global Market Intelligence | Survey data | July 24, 2026

Flash PMIs point to the strongest G4 business-activity growth in eight months, with improvement across the United States, euro area, United Kingdom and Japan. The composition is less comfortable: U.S. price pressures are the strongest of the group and supply-chain concerns are returning. Because most responses predate the latest oil move, the survey may understate the emerging cost shock.


IMF — 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil

International Monetary Fund | Article IV consultation | July 23, 2026

The IMF expects Brazilian growth of 2.4% in 2026 and about 2.5% over the medium term, supported by favorable oil terms of trade, normalization of monetary policy and the 2023 VAT reform. Brazil’s renewable-heavy electricity mix and net-oil-exporter status provide unusual protection from the global energy shock. The structural challenge is to save part of the windfall, reduce public debt and preserve room for productive and social investment.

What caught my eye: ECB, world development indicators, oil markets, and much more…

ECB — Monetary policy decisions, July 23, 2026

European Central Bank | Policy decision | July 23, 2026

The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2.25%, the main refinancing rate at 2.40% and the marginal lending rate at 2.65%. Its meeting-by-meeting stance reflects a difficult structural mix: subdued underlying demand, a renewed energy shock and the risk that imported inflation becomes embedded in wages and expectations. The Governing Council again avoided pre-committing to a rate path.

S&P Global — Flash PMIs Signal Faster Growth Across Major Developed Economies

S&P Global Market Intelligence | Survey data | July 24, 2026

Flash PMIs point to the strongest G4 business-activity growth in eight months, with improvement across the United States, euro area, United Kingdom and Japan. The composition is less comfortable: U.S. price pressures are the strongest of the group and supply-chain concerns are returning. Because most responses predate the latest oil move, the survey may understate the emerging cost shock.

World Bank — What’s New in the World Development Indicators: July 2026

World Bank | Data update | July 10, 2026

The World Development Indicators update adds 2025 national-accounts and population data, poverty estimates through 2024, and refreshed series on displacement, gender, migration, governance, entrepreneurship and purchasing-power parities. Its structural value is breadth: it improves the common empirical base for comparing growth, inclusion and state capacity across countries.

Why AI Might Actually Create More Work for Lawyers
Bloomberg Odd Lots (Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway) | Podcast, ~55 min | 13 July 2026
“Gary Wingens, chair of Lowenstein Sandler, argues that cheaper legal work will generate more of it — a “Jevon’s paradox” for lawsuits, deals and litigation — rather than displacing lawyers.”

Brookings — Tracking Trade Amid Uncertain and Changing Tariff Policies

Brookings Institution | Interactive analysis | July 23, 2026

Brookings introduces dashboards that combine trade flows, calculated duties and price developments since 2015 with a chronology of policy actions. The practical innovation is analytical discipline: separating announcements from collected tariffs and observed market responses makes it easier to distinguish durable supply-chain change from anticipatory stockpiling and short-lived diversion.

IMF Blog — The Oil Market Absorbed the War Shock, but Buffers Are Running Low

International Monetary Fund | Blog | July 15, 2026

Oil-market flexibility, inventories and policy action helped absorb an abrupt disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but those buffers are being depleted. The analysis turns a geopolitical event into a medium-term macro question: prolonged prices near $90–100 would transmit through inflation, external balances and fiscal costs, especially in energy-importing economies.

What caught my eye: Global trade, inflation, and much more…

Global trade tracker: This dataset monitors goods-trade developments among major economies in the wake of the 2025 US tariff hikes

The Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets” by Mohamed A. El-Erian.

“The plunge in oil prices over the past week has translated into tangible relief for US households. The nationwide average price for regular gas dipped below $4 a gallon for the first time in over three months, and diesel is expected to fall below $5 in the coming days, even as long-standing regional differences persist. (On Sunday, the nationwide averages stood at $3.94 and 5.04, respectively.)”

Will the Fed hike rates in July?

Super interesting!

The (Re)Anchoring of US Firms’ Inflation Expectations” by Alexander Cline, Christian Garciga, Ina Hajdini, Timo Reinelt, and Robert W. Rich.

“This Economic Commentary studies the degree of anchoring of US firms’ inflation expectations from 2018 to 2025 by leveraging a novel survey of firms’ medium-term inflation expectations and their subjective perceptions of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) inflation objective. We capture unanchoring by measuring disagreement across firms’ expectations and the misalignment between the mean of firms’ expectations and the FOMC’s inflation objective. Based on our measure, the anchoring of firms’ medium-term inflation expectations weakened significantly during the pandemic inflation surge, driven largely by an increase in disagreement but also by firms’ subjective perceptions of the FOMC’s inflation objective’s temporarily deviating from 2 percent. While we find anchoring has significantly strengthened since 2022, it remained somewhat weaker during 2025 than the prepandemic average.”

What Happens to the Brain Under Anesthesia by Molly McDonough.

William Dalrymple: the enchanting Italian island with echoes of a lost civilisation: On Panarea, the smallest of the Aeolian Islands, the historian finds fresh fish, elegant villas — and traces of an ancient society

What caught my eye: The Fed, demand in China, the weak Yen, and much more…

The Fed held its benchmark rate steady (in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%).

Interestingly, the press release under the new chair Kevin Warsh is now much shorter than it used to be. 

Xi Jinping wants China to boost demand. Why isn’t it working? (Financial Times)

Yen falls after Fed decision, erasing intervention gains since April: Japanese currency near two-year low as rate gap pressures mount

Critical Minerals, Geopolitics, and the Green Transition“ by Tomás Domínguez-Iino, Jonathan T. Elliot, and Allan Hsiao.

“The green energy transition will be powered by the mining and processing of lithium, nickel, and cobalt, which are critical for the production of advanced batteries. These minerals are concentrated geographically but traded globally. We study the geopolitical implications of active policy intervention in key mining countries, and we discuss consequences for green technology adoption worldwide. We show that the joint use of critical minerals in advanced batteries generates complementarity, which shapes both producer welfare and battery adoption. We quantify supply chain vulnerability, policy spillovers across mineral markets, and the potential for mineral cartels.”

Super interesting!



Labor Market Consequences of Generative AI: Early Evidence from Norway” by Dennis Facius and Roberto Iacono.



“Does Generative AI displace early-career workers? We provide population-wide evidence from Norwegian administrative registers, 2015 through March 2025, exploiting the November 2022 release of ChatGPT as an availability shock. Using the within-firm composition difference-in-differences employed in recent work, supplemented with a synthetic difference-in-differences at the occupation level and a firm-level shift-share design, we find no robust evidence of employment displacement among young workers in highly AI-exposed occupations, nor any robust response across other age cohorts or on incumbent labor-market outcomes. While estimated coefficients for young workers are negative, in line with the existing literature, they are small and statistically insignificant. A backdating exercise on the synthetic difference-in-differences yields larger absolute estimates than the actual treatment date across most age bands. This suggests the apparent post-2022 decline reflects, at least in part, pre-existing secular trends rather than a clean AI-period break.”

U.S. economy – What caught my eye: June 2026 #7

The Fed held its benchmark rate steady (in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%). This was expected by many economists. Several changes were made or announced by the new chair, Kevin Warsh.

“The Fed signaled that interest rates may be raised later this year. Interestingly, the press release under the new chair Kevin Warsh is now much shorter than it used to be. The intention seems to be to communicate with short sentences that get straight to the point. This is something to like. On the other hand, potential nuances in previous press releases might be lost now. The Fed now puts less emphasis on forward guidance. Kevin Warsh did not submit his economic projections. Five task forces will be created to propose changes in communication, balance sheet management, data sources and uses, productivity and jobs, and the inflation framework.”

What caught my eye: AI and Europe, U.S. monetary policy, the Mexican stock market, and much more…

Nineteen thoughts on AI and Europe: Protectionism and industrial policy won’t fix our problems” by Pieter Garicano and Simon Grimm.

Highly relevant!

The evolution of central banks’ lending operations: insights from the Markets Committee Compendium” by Hinako Kijima, Patrick McGuire, and Bertrand Rime.

“Central banks’ monetary policy operational frameworks have evolved in response to pandemic-era interventions, the resurgence of inflation and changes in market structure. The transition to smaller balance sheets, coupled with the growing footprint of non-bank financial institutions, is having a material impact on liquidity demand. Against this backdrop, central banks have begun recalibrating their lending operations, which comprise lending facilities and open market operations that extend funds to private sector borrowers on a collateralised basis. Drawing insights from the updated Markets Committee Compendium, this article examines the key design features and trade-offs related to the counterparty access policies, the collateral framework, pricing and disclosure practices of lending operations.”

How strong is the eurozone economy?

“Stocks surge as US-Iran deal ignites global rally: Investor sentiment also helped by SpaceX’s historic initial public offering” (Financial Times)

Kevin Warsh Wants the Fed to Stop Explaining Everything (Wall Street Journal)
“For decades, the central bank believed talking openly made its policy work better. Its new chairman believes the opposite—and his first meeting Wednesday is where he starts to prove it.”

How strong is the U.S. economy?

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz weighs on output and raises inflation. Will the AI boom last?

U.S. economy – What caught my eye: June 2026 #5

“Stocks surge as US-Iran deal ignites global rally: Investor sentiment also helped by SpaceX’s historic initial public offering” (Financial Times)

Kevin Warsh Wants the Fed to Stop Explaining Everything (Wall Street Journal)
“For decades, the central bank believed talking openly made its policy work better. Its new chairman believes the opposite—and his first meeting Wednesday is where he starts to prove it.”

How strong is the U.S. economy?

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz weighs on output and raises inflation. Will the AI boom last?

U.S. economy – What caught my eye: June 2026 #4

Kevin Warsh enters the arena: The new Federal Reserve Chair will be judged on his integrity and ability (Kevin Warsh)


Several nowcasts for U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026 point to a solid expansion. They indicate annualized growth rates between 2.4 and 3.3 percent.


The Global Economy Is Threatened Again by Trade Imbalances” by Greg Ip.

Deficits and surpluses will be on the agenda at next week’s G-7 meeting in the French Alps


Fareed Zakaria Gives the 2026 Commencement Address at Bard College on AI and What It Means to Be Human:


Thought-provoking, perhaps controversial, and certainly worth reading!

The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth“ by Benjamin M. Friedman.


How to tame the inflation python

A ‘wait and see’ monetary policy strategy risks repeating the mistakes made in 2008” by Andy Haldane.


Europe 2031: What getting AI wrong means for us

Food for thought!

Eight Predictions for the Future of Higher Education” by Jay Caspian Kang.

“The next decade won’t be Armageddon. But it will bring a lot of change.”

What caught my eye: AI and what it means to be human, inflation, and much more…

Fareed Zakaria Gives the 2026 Commencement Address at Bard College on AI and What It Means to Be Human:


Thought-provoking, perhaps controversial, and certainly worth reading!

The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth“ by Benjamin M. Friedman.


How to tame the inflation python

A ‘wait and see’ monetary policy strategy risks repeating the mistakes made in 2008” by Andy Haldane.


Europe 2031: What getting AI wrong means for us

Food for thought!

Eight Predictions for the Future of Higher Education” by Jay Caspian Kang.

“The next decade won’t be Armageddon. But it will bring a lot of change.”


The Global Economy Is Threatened Again by Trade Imbalances” by Greg Ip.

Deficits and surpluses will be on the agenda at next week’s G-7 meeting in the French Alps

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