Persistent inflation, high oil prices and concern about public debt pushed long-term yields higher.

The US 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.73%, up from 4.69% on Thursday, while the 30-year yield moved above 5% to its highest level since 2007. Brent crude closed at $92.67. Expensive energy, large sovereign financing needs and borrowing linked to the AI investment boom are all adding pressure at the long end of the yield curve.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting reinforced the message that policy is more likely to remain restrictive than to provide quick relief.

What caught our eye:

1. National Bureau of Statistics of China – Industry Outpaces Household Demand

National Bureau of Statistics of China | Production, consumption and investment | August 17, 2026

China’s industrial value added increased 4.5% year on year in July and high-tech manufacturing grew 13.8% in the first seven months, while retail sales rose only 0.6% in July. The contrast shows that industrial upgrading and export capacity remain much stronger than household demand. Rebalancing will require income support, a more durable property stabilization and less reliance on manufacturing investment.

2. Eurostat – EU Bankruptcies Rise as Business Formation Slows

Eurostat | Business registrations and bankruptcies | August 17, 2026

EU business registrations fell 0.5% in the second quarter, while bankruptcies increased 5.7%. Registrations in information and communication rose 8.8%, but industry recorded a 3.6% decline. The sector split points to continued structural churn: digital activities attract new firms, whereas energy-intensive industry and other established sectors face financing costs, weak demand and the burden of economic transformation.

3. Statistics Canada – Energy Pushes Inflation Back to 3.0%

Statistics Canada | Consumer prices | August 17, 2026

Canadian CPI inflation accelerated to 3.0% in July from 2.8% in June. Gasoline prices were 25.7% higher than a year earlier, while inflation excluding gasoline remained at 2.2% and grocery prices rose 3.1%. The gap illustrates how a global energy shock can delay monetary normalization even when domestic inflation is comparatively contained and household budgets are already under pressure.

4. Bank of Japan – AI, Oil and the Yen Complicate the Rate Path

Bank of Japan | Outlook highlights | August 17, 2026

The Bank of Japan expects fiscal-year 2026 growth of 0.6% and core inflation of 2.5%. AI-related demand and government measures support activity, but crude oil and yen depreciation raise prices and weaken the terms of trade. The Bank still signals further rate increases if its outlook is realized, making Japan a notable exception to expectations of easier policy elsewhere.

5. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Import Prices Fall but Remain Elevated

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Import and export prices | August 18, 2026

U.S. import prices fell 0.4% in July as cheaper fuel outweighed higher nonfuel prices, and export prices declined 1.3%. Yet import prices were still 5.9% above a year earlier and export prices 8.2% higher. Monthly relief therefore coexists with a substantial annual cost shock, complicating the interpretation of tariffs, exchange rates and supply-chain normalization.

6. U.S. Census Bureau – Housing Starts Drop 12.4%

U.S. Census Bureau | New residential construction | August 18, 2026

Housing starts fell 12.4% in July to an annualized 1.239 million and single-family starts declined 9.9%. Permits rose 5.0%, offering a tentative signal of future stabilization. High mortgage rates, construction costs and affordability constraints are still restricting supply, reinforcing a structural housing shortage even as near-term building activity weakens.

7. Federal Reserve – Industrial Production Edges Higher

Federal Reserve | Industrial production and capacity utilization | August 18, 2026

U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in July and manufacturing output also increased 0.2; excluding motor vehicles, factory production gained 0.4%. Capacity utilization remained at 76.3%, 3.1 percentage points below its long-run average. The figures suggest moderate aggregate momentum alongside large sector differences between AI-related capital spending, traditional manufacturing and autos.

8. Federal Reserve – July Minutes Keep Another Rate Increase in Play

Federal Reserve | FOMC minutes | August 19, 2026

The FOMC voted 9-3 to hold the target range at 3.50-3.75%, but many officials judged that higher rates could be required if inflation did not decline. Participants saw underlying price pressure beyond tariffs and energy, even as most expected eventual disinflation. The minutes shifted attention from the timing of easing toward the risk that restrictive policy may need to last longer.

9. Eurostat – Euro-Area Inflation Rises to 2.9%

Eurostat | Harmonised consumer prices | August 19, 2026

Euro-area inflation increased to 2.9% in July from 2.8% in June, with services contributing 1.55 percentage points and energy 0.94 points. National rates ranged from 0.3% in Sweden to 8.2% in Romania. This dispersion makes a single monetary stance increasingly difficult: common energy exposure is interacting with very different domestic price and demand conditions.

The week ended with a tension that markets have not resolved: US inflation moderated, but consumer spending and confidence weakened while oil remained expensive. That combination reduced the immediate case for a Federal Reserve rate increase, yet it also revived concern that growth could slow before inflation has fully returned to target.

Equities absorbed the news remarkably well. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% on Friday from Thursday’s record but still gained 0.4% for the week, its third consecutive weekly advance. The Nasdaq added 0.1% and the Russell 2000 rose 1.1%, while the Dow lost 0.6%. Investors still appear willing to interpret softer data as supportive for policy, provided that earnings remain resilient.

Energy complicates that interpretation. Brent rose 1.7% on Friday to $88.52 as uncertainty continued over tanker access to the Persian Gulf. Reports that two UAE-operated tankers had been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz reinforced the risk that another disruption could quickly reverse the recent improvement in headline inflation.

United States: Advance retail and food-services sales fell 0.6% in July to $763.6 billion after rising 0.2% in June, although they remained 5.0% above their year-earlier level. Sales excluding autos and gasoline declined 0.2%, while the control group used in GDP calculations fell 0.4%. Online sales dropped 2.2% after an earlier Amazon Prime Day, whereas restaurant sales rose 0.5%. The details suggest genuine softness, but event timing and earlier tax-refund spending argue against treating one month as a consumer recession.

The next US data sequence will test whether July’s retail decline was isolated. Monday brings the Empire State manufacturing survey. Tuesday features import and export prices, housing starts, industrial production and pending home sales. Thursday’s jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed survey will add evidence on labor demand and manufacturing.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Productivity Rises but Labor’s Share Reaches a Record Low

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Productivity and costs | August 6, 2026

Nonfarm business productivity increased at a 1.4% annualized rate in the second quarter and was 2.2% higher than a year earlier. Unit labor costs rose only 1.3%, but real hourly compensation fell 3.1% and labor’s share of output declined to 52.9%, the lowest in a series beginning in 1947. The figures separate rising efficiency from the distribution of its gains.

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Our IMEN Updates & Highlights 2026 #27

Stablecoins, public debt and interest rates, geoeconomics, and much more…

---

Axios – AI Architects Say an Intelligence Inflection Point Is Approaching

Axios | Artificial intelligence and institutions | August 6, 2026

Leading AI developers increasingly describe a transition in which models help accelerate their own improvement. The claims remain uncertain, but corporate reorganizations and rapidly rising infrastructure budgets show that firms are acting as if capabilities will continue to advance quickly. The structural question is no longer only what AI can automate, but whether governance, energy systems and labor institutions can adapt at the same speed.

IMEN report on the BLS employment report

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the employment situation report for July. Instead of rising moderately as expected, employment fell by 23,000.

National Bureau of Statistics of China – Consumer Inflation Slows Sharply

National Bureau of Statistics of China | Consumer and producer prices | August 9, 2026

China’s consumer inflation slowed to 0.5% year on year in July, below expectations and down from 1.0% in June. Food prices declined while non-food inflation also eased, reinforcing evidence that domestic demand remains much weaker than the export sector. The contrast with high inflation in many advanced economies gives Beijing policy room, but monetary easing alone may not repair household confidence or property balance sheets.

Iraq and Turkey Agree on a New Oil Export Route

Iraq and Turkey signed a one-year agreement to raise crude exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to at least 750,000 barrels per day. The corridor offers an alternative to southern terminals dependent on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, although it cannot replace Iraq’s prewar export capacity. Geopolitical disruption is redirecting infrastructure toward redundancy and overland routes.

World Economic Forum – Building Skills Is Not Enough for Young People

World Economic Forum | Jobs and the future of work | July 27, 2026

Training alone does not create durable employment when young people lack finance, mentorship, customers and functioning institutions. The article proposes five connected elements – skills, appropriate finance, mentoring, market access and enabling economic conditions – as an integrated pathway. Its structural message is especially relevant for women and workers in fragile economies, where isolated programs often stop before firms can scale.

In the euro area, the economy expanded by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (and by 0.5 percent in the EU as a whole)

Among the large euro area member states, all recorded fairly solid gains: Germany, France and Italy each at 0.2 percent, and Spain a strong 0.7 percent.

U.S. Economy Grows at a Sluggish 1.5% in the Second Quarter

U.S. growth and inflation | July 30, 2026

Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1%, as imports weighed on the headline. The domestic picture was firmer: consumer spending rose at a 3.2% pace, underlying private demand grew 3.9% and non-residential investment advanced 8.4%, supported by AI spending. June PCE inflation slowed to 3.7% year on year and core PCE to 3.3%, still well above the Federal Reserve’s target.

IMEN Letter: Central banks, geopolitics, AI uncertainty, and much more…

“In the past week, we saw three major central bank decisions, four large companies reporting, the first estimate of US second-quarter growth, and a coordinated currency intervention.”

---

Bank of England Holds Bank Rate at 3.75%

United Kingdom monetary policy | July 30, 2026

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%, the fifth hold of 2026. A larger-than-expected decline in inflation created room to assess the renewed Iran-related energy shock, but the split vote showed that policymakers remain divided over the balance between weak demand and renewed price pressure. The decision reinforces the global shift from synchronized easing toward more conditional, shock-sensitive policy.

Federal Reserve — FOMC Keeps the Federal Funds Target Range Unchanged

Federal Reserve | FOMC statement | July 29, 2026

The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan preferred a 25-basis-point increase, while the statement described activity as solid and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly because of energy supply shocks. The split vote makes inflation credibility, long-term yields and data dependence central to the next meeting.

Reuters — South Korea Stock Rout Breaks Records as SK Hynix Earnings Disappoint

Reuters | Asian equity markets | July 29, 2026

Iraq and Turkey Agree on a New Oil Export Route

Associated Press | Energy infrastructure and trade routes

Iraq and Turkey signed a one-year agreement to raise crude exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to at least 750,000 barrels per day. The corridor offers an alternative to southern terminals dependent on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, although it cannot replace Iraq’s prewar export capacity. The deal shows how geopolitical disruption is redirecting infrastructure investment toward redundancy and overland routes.

World Economic Forum — Climate Resilience Can Help Cities and Businesses Grow

World Economic Forum | Urban resilience analysis | July 28, 2026

Climate resilience is becoming a location factor for capital, supply chains and skilled workers. Research covering 1,500 cities finds that protective infrastructure, water systems, cooling, liveability and public-private finance can improve business attractiveness; 45% of surveyed CEOs are considering supply-chain reconfiguration. Adaptation spending increasingly functions as competitiveness policy.

Branko Milanovic on What Comes After Globalization

Bloomberg Odd Lots (Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway) | Podcast, ~61 min | 27 July 2026

Milanovic supplies the missing label for the current era. Globalisation has visibly fallen out of favour, but naming what replaces it has proved harder; his term is “national market liberalism” — market mechanisms retained, but organised around national rather than global objectives. The conversation draws on his new book on the United States, China and the remaking of the world economic order, and pairs directly with the two VoxEU columns above (items 13 and 14) on what institutional form a fragmented order might take.

IEA — Affordable Electricity Is Essential for the EU’s Electrification Goals

International Energy Agency | Commentary | July 23, 2026

The IEA finds that coordinated action on low-cost generation, grids, flexibility, nuclear lifetime extensions and energy taxation could materially lower EU electricity prices by 2030. Without such measures, consumer prices could be more than 40% higher than today in its counterfactual. The structural point is that electrification depends as much on system design and tax incentives as on adding renewable capacity.

VoxEU — Resilience Is a Network Property: Europe’s Integration Test for 2050

CEPR / VoxEU | Policy column | July 23, 2026

The column argues that resilience depends on the depth, diversity and quality of economic connections rather than the number of links severed in pursuit of self-sufficiency. For Europe, the implication is deeper capital markets, diversified supply chains and differentiated integration with strategic neighbors. Derisking should mean rewiring concentrated exposure, not retreating into costly autarky.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Productivity Rises but Labor’s Share Reaches a Record Low

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Productivity and costs | August 6, 2026

Nonfarm business productivity increased at a 1.4% annualized rate in the second quarter and was 2.2% higher than a year earlier. Unit labor costs rose only 1.3%, but real hourly compensation fell 3.1% and labor’s share of output declined to 52.9%, the lowest in a series beginning in 1947. The figures separate rising efficiency from the distribution of its gains.

Axios – AI Architects Say an Intelligence Inflection Point Is Approaching

Axios | Artificial intelligence and institutions | August 6, 2026

Leading AI developers increasingly describe a transition in which models help accelerate their own improvement. The claims remain uncertain, but corporate reorganizations and rapidly rising infrastructure budgets show that firms are acting as if capabilities will continue to advance quickly. The structural question is no longer only what AI can automate, but whether governance, energy systems and labor institutions can adapt at the same speed.

IMEN report on the BLS employment report

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the employment situation report for July. Instead of rising moderately as expected, employment fell by 23,000.

National Bureau of Statistics of China – Consumer Inflation Slows Sharply

National Bureau of Statistics of China | Consumer and producer prices | August 9, 2026

China’s consumer inflation slowed to 0.5% year on year in July, below expectations and down from 1.0% in June. Food prices declined while non-food inflation also eased, reinforcing evidence that domestic demand remains much weaker than the export sector. The contrast with high inflation in many advanced economies gives Beijing policy room, but monetary easing alone may not repair household confidence or property balance sheets.

Iraq and Turkey Agree on a New Oil Export Route

Iraq and Turkey signed a one-year agreement to raise crude exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to at least 750,000 barrels per day. The corridor offers an alternative to southern terminals dependent on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, although it cannot replace Iraq’s prewar export capacity. Geopolitical disruption is redirecting infrastructure toward redundancy and overland routes.

World Economic Forum – Building Skills Is Not Enough for Young People

World Economic Forum | Jobs and the future of work | July 27, 2026

Training alone does not create durable employment when young people lack finance, mentorship, customers and functioning institutions. The article proposes five connected elements – skills, appropriate finance, mentoring, market access and enabling economic conditions – as an integrated pathway. Its structural message is especially relevant for women and workers in fragile economies, where isolated programs often stop before firms can scale.

In the euro area, the economy expanded by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (and by 0.5 percent in the EU as a whole)

Among the large euro area member states, all recorded fairly solid gains: Germany, France and Italy each at 0.2 percent, and Spain a strong 0.7 percent.

U.S. Economy Grows at a Sluggish 1.5% in the Second Quarter

U.S. growth and inflation | July 30, 2026

Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1%, as imports weighed on the headline. The domestic picture was firmer: consumer spending rose at a 3.2% pace, underlying private demand grew 3.9% and non-residential investment advanced 8.4%, supported by AI spending. June PCE inflation slowed to 3.7% year on year and core PCE to 3.3%, still well above the Federal Reserve’s target.

IMEN Letter: Central banks, geopolitics, AI uncertainty, and much more…

“In the past week, we saw three major central bank decisions, four large companies reporting, the first estimate of US second-quarter growth, and a coordinated currency intervention.”

---

Bank of England Holds Bank Rate at 3.75%

United Kingdom monetary policy | July 30, 2026

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%, the fifth hold of 2026. A larger-than-expected decline in inflation created room to assess the renewed Iran-related energy shock, but the split vote showed that policymakers remain divided over the balance between weak demand and renewed price pressure. The decision reinforces the global shift from synchronized easing toward more conditional, shock-sensitive policy.

Federal Reserve — FOMC Keeps the Federal Funds Target Range Unchanged

Federal Reserve | FOMC statement | July 29, 2026

The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan preferred a 25-basis-point increase, while the statement described activity as solid and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly because of energy supply shocks. The split vote makes inflation credibility, long-term yields and data dependence central to the next meeting.

Reuters — South Korea Stock Rout Breaks Records as SK Hynix Earnings Disappoint

Reuters | Asian equity markets | July 29, 2026

Iraq and Turkey Agree on a New Oil Export Route

Associated Press | Energy infrastructure and trade routes

Iraq and Turkey signed a one-year agreement to raise crude exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to at least 750,000 barrels per day. The corridor offers an alternative to southern terminals dependent on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, although it cannot replace Iraq’s prewar export capacity. The deal shows how geopolitical disruption is redirecting infrastructure investment toward redundancy and overland routes.

World Economic Forum — Climate Resilience Can Help Cities and Businesses Grow

World Economic Forum | Urban resilience analysis | July 28, 2026

Climate resilience is becoming a location factor for capital, supply chains and skilled workers. Research covering 1,500 cities finds that protective infrastructure, water systems, cooling, liveability and public-private finance can improve business attractiveness; 45% of surveyed CEOs are considering supply-chain reconfiguration. Adaptation spending increasingly functions as competitiveness policy.

Branko Milanovic on What Comes After Globalization

Bloomberg Odd Lots (Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway) | Podcast, ~61 min | 27 July 2026

Milanovic supplies the missing label for the current era. Globalisation has visibly fallen out of favour, but naming what replaces it has proved harder; his term is “national market liberalism” — market mechanisms retained, but organised around national rather than global objectives. The conversation draws on his new book on the United States, China and the remaking of the world economic order, and pairs directly with the two VoxEU columns above (items 13 and 14) on what institutional form a fragmented order might take.

IEA — Affordable Electricity Is Essential for the EU’s Electrification Goals

International Energy Agency | Commentary | July 23, 2026

The IEA finds that coordinated action on low-cost generation, grids, flexibility, nuclear lifetime extensions and energy taxation could materially lower EU electricity prices by 2030. Without such measures, consumer prices could be more than 40% higher than today in its counterfactual. The structural point is that electrification depends as much on system design and tax incentives as on adding renewable capacity.

VoxEU — Resilience Is a Network Property: Europe’s Integration Test for 2050

CEPR / VoxEU | Policy column | July 23, 2026

The column argues that resilience depends on the depth, diversity and quality of economic connections rather than the number of links severed in pursuit of self-sufficiency. For Europe, the implication is deeper capital markets, diversified supply chains and differentiated integration with strategic neighbors. Derisking should mean rewiring concentrated exposure, not retreating into costly autarky.

IMEN report on the BLS employment report

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the employment situation report for July. Instead of rising moderately as expected, employment fell by 23,000.

Iraq and Turkey Agree on a New Oil Export Route

Iraq and Turkey signed a one-year agreement to raise crude exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to at least 750,000 barrels per day. The corridor offers an alternative to southern terminals dependent on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, although it cannot replace Iraq’s prewar export capacity. Geopolitical disruption is redirecting infrastructure toward redundancy and overland routes.

World Economic Forum – Building Skills Is Not Enough for Young People

World Economic Forum | Jobs and the future of work | July 27, 2026

Training alone does not create durable employment when young people lack finance, mentorship, customers and functioning institutions. The article proposes five connected elements – skills, appropriate finance, mentoring, market access and enabling economic conditions – as an integrated pathway. Its structural message is especially relevant for women and workers in fragile economies, where isolated programs often stop before firms can scale.

In the euro area, the economy expanded by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (and by 0.5 percent in the EU as a whole)

Among the large euro area member states, all recorded fairly solid gains: Germany, France and Italy each at 0.2 percent, and Spain a strong 0.7 percent.

U.S. Economy Grows at a Sluggish 1.5% in the Second Quarter

U.S. growth and inflation | July 30, 2026

Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1%, as imports weighed on the headline. The domestic picture was firmer: consumer spending rose at a 3.2% pace, underlying private demand grew 3.9% and non-residential investment advanced 8.4%, supported by AI spending. June PCE inflation slowed to 3.7% year on year and core PCE to 3.3%, still well above the Federal Reserve’s target.

IMEN Letter: Central banks, geopolitics, AI uncertainty, and much more…

“In the past week, we saw three major central bank decisions, four large companies reporting, the first estimate of US second-quarter growth, and a coordinated currency intervention.”

---

Bank of England Holds Bank Rate at 3.75%

United Kingdom monetary policy | July 30, 2026

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%, the fifth hold of 2026. A larger-than-expected decline in inflation created room to assess the renewed Iran-related energy shock, but the split vote showed that policymakers remain divided over the balance between weak demand and renewed price pressure. The decision reinforces the global shift from synchronized easing toward more conditional, shock-sensitive policy.

Federal Reserve — FOMC Keeps the Federal Funds Target Range Unchanged

Federal Reserve | FOMC statement | July 29, 2026

The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan preferred a 25-basis-point increase, while the statement described activity as solid and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly because of energy supply shocks. The split vote makes inflation credibility, long-term yields and data dependence central to the next meeting.

Reuters — South Korea Stock Rout Breaks Records as SK Hynix Earnings Disappoint

Reuters | Asian equity markets | July 29, 2026

Iraq and Turkey Agree on a New Oil Export Route

Associated Press | Energy infrastructure and trade routes

Iraq and Turkey signed a one-year agreement to raise crude exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to at least 750,000 barrels per day. The corridor offers an alternative to southern terminals dependent on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, although it cannot replace Iraq’s prewar export capacity. The deal shows how geopolitical disruption is redirecting infrastructure investment toward redundancy and overland routes.

World Economic Forum — Climate Resilience Can Help Cities and Businesses Grow

World Economic Forum | Urban resilience analysis | July 28, 2026

Climate resilience is becoming a location factor for capital, supply chains and skilled workers. Research covering 1,500 cities finds that protective infrastructure, water systems, cooling, liveability and public-private finance can improve business attractiveness; 45% of surveyed CEOs are considering supply-chain reconfiguration. Adaptation spending increasingly functions as competitiveness policy.

Branko Milanovic on What Comes After Globalization

Bloomberg Odd Lots (Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway) | Podcast, ~61 min | 27 July 2026

Milanovic supplies the missing label for the current era. Globalisation has visibly fallen out of favour, but naming what replaces it has proved harder; his term is “national market liberalism” — market mechanisms retained, but organised around national rather than global objectives. The conversation draws on his new book on the United States, China and the remaking of the world economic order, and pairs directly with the two VoxEU columns above (items 13 and 14) on what institutional form a fragmented order might take.

IEA — Affordable Electricity Is Essential for the EU’s Electrification Goals

International Energy Agency | Commentary | July 23, 2026

The IEA finds that coordinated action on low-cost generation, grids, flexibility, nuclear lifetime extensions and energy taxation could materially lower EU electricity prices by 2030. Without such measures, consumer prices could be more than 40% higher than today in its counterfactual. The structural point is that electrification depends as much on system design and tax incentives as on adding renewable capacity.

VoxEU — Resilience Is a Network Property: Europe’s Integration Test for 2050

CEPR / VoxEU | Policy column | July 23, 2026

The column argues that resilience depends on the depth, diversity and quality of economic connections rather than the number of links severed in pursuit of self-sufficiency. For Europe, the implication is deeper capital markets, diversified supply chains and differentiated integration with strategic neighbors. Derisking should mean rewiring concentrated exposure, not retreating into costly autarky.

World Economic Forum – Building Skills Is Not Enough for Young People

World Economic Forum | Jobs and the future of work | July 27, 2026

Training alone does not create durable employment when young people lack finance, mentorship, customers and functioning institutions. The article proposes five connected elements – skills, appropriate finance, mentoring, market access and enabling economic conditions – as an integrated pathway. Its structural message is especially relevant for women and workers in fragile economies, where isolated programs often stop before firms can scale.

In the euro area, the economy expanded by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (and by 0.5 percent in the EU as a whole)

Among the large euro area member states, all recorded fairly solid gains: Germany, France and Italy each at 0.2 percent, and Spain a strong 0.7 percent.

U.S. Economy Grows at a Sluggish 1.5% in the Second Quarter

U.S. growth and inflation | July 30, 2026

Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1%, as imports weighed on the headline. The domestic picture was firmer: consumer spending rose at a 3.2% pace, underlying private demand grew 3.9% and non-residential investment advanced 8.4%, supported by AI spending. June PCE inflation slowed to 3.7% year on year and core PCE to 3.3%, still well above the Federal Reserve’s target.

IMEN Letter: Central banks, geopolitics, AI uncertainty, and much more…

“In the past week, we saw three major central bank decisions, four large companies reporting, the first estimate of US second-quarter growth, and a coordinated currency intervention.”

---

Bank of England Holds Bank Rate at 3.75%

United Kingdom monetary policy | July 30, 2026

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%, the fifth hold of 2026. A larger-than-expected decline in inflation created room to assess the renewed Iran-related energy shock, but the split vote showed that policymakers remain divided over the balance between weak demand and renewed price pressure. The decision reinforces the global shift from synchronized easing toward more conditional, shock-sensitive policy.

Federal Reserve — FOMC Keeps the Federal Funds Target Range Unchanged

Federal Reserve | FOMC statement | July 29, 2026

The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan preferred a 25-basis-point increase, while the statement described activity as solid and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly because of energy supply shocks. The split vote makes inflation credibility, long-term yields and data dependence central to the next meeting.

Reuters — South Korea Stock Rout Breaks Records as SK Hynix Earnings Disappoint

Reuters | Asian equity markets | July 29, 2026

Iraq and Turkey Agree on a New Oil Export Route

Associated Press | Energy infrastructure and trade routes

Iraq and Turkey signed a one-year agreement to raise crude exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to at least 750,000 barrels per day. The corridor offers an alternative to southern terminals dependent on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, although it cannot replace Iraq’s prewar export capacity. The deal shows how geopolitical disruption is redirecting infrastructure investment toward redundancy and overland routes.

World Economic Forum — Climate Resilience Can Help Cities and Businesses Grow

World Economic Forum | Urban resilience analysis | July 28, 2026

Climate resilience is becoming a location factor for capital, supply chains and skilled workers. Research covering 1,500 cities finds that protective infrastructure, water systems, cooling, liveability and public-private finance can improve business attractiveness; 45% of surveyed CEOs are considering supply-chain reconfiguration. Adaptation spending increasingly functions as competitiveness policy.

Branko Milanovic on What Comes After Globalization

Bloomberg Odd Lots (Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway) | Podcast, ~61 min | 27 July 2026

Milanovic supplies the missing label for the current era. Globalisation has visibly fallen out of favour, but naming what replaces it has proved harder; his term is “national market liberalism” — market mechanisms retained, but organised around national rather than global objectives. The conversation draws on his new book on the United States, China and the remaking of the world economic order, and pairs directly with the two VoxEU columns above (items 13 and 14) on what institutional form a fragmented order might take.

IEA — Affordable Electricity Is Essential for the EU’s Electrification Goals

International Energy Agency | Commentary | July 23, 2026

The IEA finds that coordinated action on low-cost generation, grids, flexibility, nuclear lifetime extensions and energy taxation could materially lower EU electricity prices by 2030. Without such measures, consumer prices could be more than 40% higher than today in its counterfactual. The structural point is that electrification depends as much on system design and tax incentives as on adding renewable capacity.

VoxEU — Resilience Is a Network Property: Europe’s Integration Test for 2050

CEPR / VoxEU | Policy column | July 23, 2026

The column argues that resilience depends on the depth, diversity and quality of economic connections rather than the number of links severed in pursuit of self-sufficiency. For Europe, the implication is deeper capital markets, diversified supply chains and differentiated integration with strategic neighbors. De-risking should mean rewiring concentrated exposure, not retreating into costly autarky.

In the euro area, the economy expanded by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2026 (and by 0.5 percent in the EU as a whole)

Among the large euro area member states, all recorded fairly solid gains: Germany, France and Italy each at 0.2 percent, and Spain a strong 0.7 percent.

U.S. Economy Grows at a Sluggish 1.5% in the Second Quarter

U.S. growth and inflation | July 30, 2026

Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1%, as imports weighed on the headline. The domestic picture was firmer: consumer spending rose at a 3.2% pace, underlying private demand grew 3.9% and non-residential investment advanced 8.4%, supported by AI spending. June PCE inflation slowed to 3.7% year on year and core PCE to 3.3%, still well above the Federal Reserve’s target.

Bank of England Holds Bank Rate at 3.75%

United Kingdom monetary policy | July 30, 2026

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%, the fifth hold of 2026. A larger-than-expected decline in inflation created room to assess the renewed Iran-related energy shock, but the split vote showed that policymakers remain divided over the balance between weak demand and renewed price pressure. The decision reinforces the global shift from synchronized easing toward more conditional, shock-sensitive policy.

Federal Reserve — FOMC Keeps the Federal Funds Target Range Unchanged

Federal Reserve | FOMC statement | July 29, 2026

The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan preferred a 25-basis-point increase, while the statement described activity as solid and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly because of energy supply shocks. The split vote makes inflation credibility, long-term yields and data dependence central to the next meeting.

Reuters — South Korea Stock Rout Breaks Records as SK Hynix Earnings Disappoint

Reuters | Asian equity markets | July 29, 2026

World Economic Forum — Climate Resilience Can Help Cities and Businesses Grow

World Economic Forum | Urban resilience analysis | July 28, 2026

Climate resilience is becoming a location factor for capital, supply chains and skilled workers. Research covering 1,500 cities finds that protective infrastructure, water systems, cooling, liveability and public-private finance can improve business attractiveness; 45% of surveyed CEOs are considering supply-chain reconfiguration. Adaptation spending increasingly functions as competitiveness policy.

Branko Milanovic on What Comes After Globalization

Bloomberg Odd Lots (Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway) | Podcast, ~61 min | 27 July 2026

Milanovic supplies the missing label for the current era. Globalisation has visibly fallen out of favour, but naming what replaces it has proved harder; his term is “national market liberalism” — market mechanisms retained, but organised around national rather than global objectives. The conversation draws on his new book on the United States, China and the remaking of the world economic order, and pairs directly with the two VoxEU columns above (items 13 and 14) on what institutional form a fragmented order might take.

IEA — Affordable Electricity Is Essential for the EU’s Electrification Goals

International Energy Agency | Commentary | July 23, 2026

The IEA finds that coordinated action on low-cost generation, grids, flexibility, nuclear lifetime extensions and energy taxation could materially lower EU electricity prices by 2030. Without such measures, consumer prices could be more than 40% higher than today in its counterfactual. The structural point is that electrification depends as much on system design and tax incentives as on adding renewable capacity.

VoxEU — Resilience Is a Network Property: Europe’s Integration Test for 2050

CEPR / VoxEU | Policy column | July 23, 2026

The column argues that resilience depends on the depth, diversity and quality of economic connections rather than the number of links severed in pursuit of self-sufficiency. For Europe, the implication is deeper capital markets, diversified supply chains and differentiated integration with strategic neighbors. De-risking should mean rewiring concentrated exposure, not retreating into costly autarky.

Federal Reserve — FOMC Keeps the Federal Funds Target Range Unchanged

Federal Reserve | FOMC statement | July 29, 2026

The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan preferred a 25-basis-point increase, while the statement described activity as solid and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal, partly because of energy supply shocks. The split vote makes inflation credibility, long-term yields and data dependence central to the next meeting.

Reuters — South Korea Stock Rout Breaks Records as SK Hynix Earnings Disappoint

Reuters | Asian equity markets | July 29, 2026

World Economic Forum — Climate Resilience Can Help Cities and Businesses Grow

World Economic Forum | Urban resilience analysis | July 28, 2026

Climate resilience is becoming a location factor for capital, supply chains and skilled workers. Research covering 1,500 cities finds that protective infrastructure, water systems, cooling, liveability and public-private finance can improve business attractiveness; 45% of surveyed CEOs are considering supply-chain reconfiguration. Adaptation spending increasingly functions as competitiveness policy.

Branko Milanovic on What Comes After Globalization

Bloomberg Odd Lots (Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway) | Podcast, ~61 min | 27 July 2026

Milanovic supplies the missing label for the current era. Globalisation has visibly fallen out of favour, but naming what replaces it has proved harder; his term is “national market liberalism” — market mechanisms retained, but organised around national rather than global objectives. The conversation draws on his new book on the United States, China and the remaking of the world economic order, and pairs directly with the two VoxEU columns above (items 13 and 14) on what institutional form a fragmented order might take.

IEA — Affordable Electricity Is Essential for the EU’s Electrification Goals

International Energy Agency | Commentary | July 23, 2026

The IEA finds that coordinated action on low-cost generation, grids, flexibility, nuclear lifetime extensions and energy taxation could materially lower EU electricity prices by 2030. Without such measures, consumer prices could be more than 40% higher than today in its counterfactual. The structural point is that electrification depends as much on system design and tax incentives as on adding renewable capacity.

VoxEU — Resilience Is a Network Property: Europe’s Integration Test for 2050

CEPR / VoxEU | Policy column | July 23, 2026

The column argues that resilience depends on the depth, diversity and quality of economic connections rather than the number of links severed in pursuit of self-sufficiency. For Europe, the implication is deeper capital markets, diversified supply chains and differentiated integration with strategic neighbors. De-risking should mean rewiring concentrated exposure, not retreating into costly autarky.

World Economic Forum — From Silk Roads to Supply Chains is today’s most useful short citation because it links the history of Asian integration to the practical question of how firms should redesign supply chains under geopolitical pressure.

“Connectivity endured because networks adapted to changing circumstances, not because exchange was inevitable.”

VoxEU — Resilience Is a Network Property: Europe’s Integration Test for 2050

CEPR / VoxEU | Policy column | July 23, 2026

The column argues that resilience depends on the depth, diversity and quality of economic connections rather than the number of links severed in pursuit of self-sufficiency. For Europe, the implication is deeper capital markets, diversified supply chains and differentiated integration with strategic neighbors. De-risking should mean rewiring concentrated exposure, not retreating into costly autarky.

World Economic Forum — Climate Resilience Can Help Cities and Businesses Grow

World Economic Forum | Urban resilience analysis | July 28, 2026

Climate resilience is becoming a location factor for capital, supply chains and skilled workers. Research covering 1,500 cities finds that protective infrastructure, water systems, cooling, liveability and public-private finance can improve business attractiveness; 45% of surveyed CEOs are considering supply-chain reconfiguration. Adaptation spending increasingly functions as competitiveness policy.

China Economy Flash July 2026

Who is Afraid of Eurobonds?

NBER Working Paper 35510 (Bianchi, Fang, Melosi, Rogantini Picco) | Working paper | 27 July 2026

A concrete institutional proposal at a moment when euro-area fiscal space is under strain. The authors argue that the current framework “conflates short-run stabilization with long-run fiscal sustainability, exposing members to deflationary and inflationary tail risks.” Their alternative separates the two: “A centralized Treasury issues Eurobonds to finance countercyclical stabilization, while national governments retain responsibility for long-term fiscal sustainability.” In their estimated model the arrangement “functions as an automatic stabilizer, eliminating the tail risks of deflation and fiscal stagflation”, with no need to suspend national fiscal rules in a downturn.

Branko Milanovic on What Comes After Globalization

Bloomberg Odd Lots (Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway) | Podcast, ~61 min | 27 July 2026

Milanovic supplies the missing label for the current era. Globalisation has visibly fallen out of favour, but naming what replaces it has proved harder; his term is “national market liberalism” — market mechanisms retained, but organised around national rather than global objectives. The conversation draws on his new book on the United States, China and the remaking of the world economic order, and pairs directly with the two VoxEU columns above (items 13 and 14) on what institutional form a fragmented order might take.

Chartbook 461: Polycrisis & nostalgia for lost futures

Chartbook, Adam Tooze | Newsletter | 26 July 2026

Tooze returns to the concept he popularised, prompted by a workshop run by the Centre for Strategic Futures inside Singapore’s Prime Minister’s Office, where he was asked to open on “Polycrisis, the past, the present and the future.” The framing questions are the substance: how the present moment of polycrisis should “recast our understanding of the past”, and “what role does memory play in shaping our understanding of the present, and who we perceive to be friend or foe”. A useful counterweight to the forecast-driven material elsewhere in this overview.

U.S. monetary policy: The Fed is expected to keep interest rates constant on July 29

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PIIE — El Niño Could Drag Down the Global Economy by Almost $700 Billion—or $3 Trillion

Peterson Institute for International Economics | Blog | July 20, 2026

The analysis estimates a first-year global loss of about $686 billion and a five-year loss of roughly $3.1 trillion from a severe El Niño. The largest proportional effects fall on lower- and middle-income economies through harvest failures, food imports, damaged infrastructure and lost investment. Pre-positioned concessional finance and food aid would turn climate preparedness into macroeconomic stabilization.

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IEA — Global Electricity Demand Growth Set to Accelerate

International Energy Agency | Electricity Mid-Year Update | July 23, 2026

The IEA forecasts electricity-demand growth of 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027, driven by industry, cooling, electric vehicles and data centers. Renewables are set to overtake coal as the largest global source of generation in 2026, yet high LNG prices have also encouraged coal switching. More frequent negative prices and wider intraday swings reveal an urgent need for storage, grids and demand flexibility.

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Reaction to U.S. Tariffs on 60 Trading Partners

Reuters | July 24, 2026

Officials from Europe, Australia, Brazil, Mexico and Southeast Asia responded differently to the new U.S. tariffs, reflecting varying exposure, exemptions and prior agreements. Brazil signaled possible recourse to domestic retaliation instruments and the WTO, while others emphasized negotiation. A common concern is that legal and policy uncertainty itself discourages trade and investment.

IMF Blog — The Oil Market Absorbed the War Shock, but Buffers Are Running Low

International Monetary Fund | Blog | July 15, 2026

Oil-market flexibility, inventories and policy action helped absorb an abrupt disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but those buffers are being depleted. The analysis turns a geopolitical event into a medium-term macro question: prolonged prices near $90–100 would transmit through inflation, external balances and fiscal costs, especially in energy-importing economies.

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S&P Global — Flash PMIs Signal Faster Growth Across Major Developed Economies

S&P Global Market Intelligence | Survey data | July 24, 2026

Flash PMIs point to the strongest G4 business-activity growth in eight months, with improvement across the United States, euro area, United Kingdom and Japan. The composition is less comfortable: U.S. price pressures are the strongest of the group and supply-chain concerns are returning. Because most responses predate the latest oil move, the survey may understate the emerging cost shock.

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IMF — 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil

International Monetary Fund | Article IV consultation | July 23, 2026

The IMF expects Brazilian growth of 2.4% in 2026 and about 2.5% over the medium term, supported by favorable oil terms of trade, normalization of monetary policy and the 2023 VAT reform. Brazil’s renewable-heavy electricity mix and net-oil-exporter status provide unusual protection from the global energy shock. The structural challenge is to save part of the windfall, reduce public debt and preserve room for productive and social investment.

ECB — Monetary policy decisions, July 23, 2026

European Central Bank | Policy decision | July 23, 2026

The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2.25%, the main refinancing rate at 2.40% and the marginal lending rate at 2.65%. Its meeting-by-meeting stance reflects a difficult structural mix: subdued underlying demand, a renewed energy shock and the risk that imported inflation becomes embedded in wages and expectations. The Governing Council again avoided pre-committing to a rate path.

S&P Global — Flash PMIs Signal Faster Growth Across Major Developed Economies

S&P Global Market Intelligence | Survey data | July 24, 2026

Flash PMIs point to the strongest G4 business-activity growth in eight months, with improvement across the United States, euro area, United Kingdom and Japan. The composition is less comfortable: U.S. price pressures are the strongest of the group and supply-chain concerns are returning. Because most responses predate the latest oil move, the survey may understate the emerging cost shock.

World Bank — What’s New in the World Development Indicators: July 2026

World Bank | Data update | July 10, 2026

The World Development Indicators update adds 2025 national-accounts and population data, poverty estimates through 2024, and refreshed series on displacement, gender, migration, governance, entrepreneurship and purchasing-power parities. Its structural value is breadth: it improves the common empirical base for comparing growth, inclusion and state capacity across countries.

Why AI Might Actually Create More Work for Lawyers
Bloomberg Odd Lots (Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway) | Podcast, ~55 min | 13 July 2026
“Gary Wingens, chair of Lowenstein Sandler, argues that cheaper legal work will generate more of it — a “Jevon’s paradox” for lawsuits, deals and litigation — rather than displacing lawyers.”

Brookings — Tracking Trade Amid Uncertain and Changing Tariff Policies

Brookings Institution | Interactive analysis | July 23, 2026

Brookings introduces dashboards that combine trade flows, calculated duties and price developments since 2015 with a chronology of policy actions. The practical innovation is analytical discipline: separating announcements from collected tariffs and observed market responses makes it easier to distinguish durable supply-chain change from anticipatory stockpiling and short-lived diversion.

IMF Blog — The Oil Market Absorbed the War Shock, but Buffers Are Running Low

International Monetary Fund | Blog | July 15, 2026

Oil-market flexibility, inventories and policy action helped absorb an abrupt disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but those buffers are being depleted. The analysis turns a geopolitical event into a medium-term macro question: prolonged prices near $90–100 would transmit through inflation, external balances and fiscal costs, especially in energy-importing economies.