Recession, yes or no. That has been the big question for several months now.
Category Archives: Allgemein
German economy gets off lightly in the short term
Germany’s gross domestic product shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter. However, a severe winter recession, which was feared in the autumn, has become less likely. Nevertheless, the risks to the economy remain high. I am somewhat more pessimistic regarding economic growth in 2023 than some of my colleagues.
What caught my eye: The IMF economic outlook, the oil market in 2023, and the effects of Brexit
The International Monetary Fund published its economic outlook (in my opinion, it is a bit too optimistic):
The German economy may experience a mild recession, but a severe one can still not be excluded
The German economy is proving remarkably robust under challenging conditions, even though the economic situation remains gloomy.
German economy: Deep recession can probably be avoided, but outlook remains gloomy
The German economy is probably facing a recession, even if the outlook has recently improved somewhat.
Political paralysis in the United States likely – also a problem for Europe?
After the midterm elections in the U.S., there is hardly any time to take a deep breath on the political level.
U.S. economy remains robust, but recession likely next year
I expect a mild recession, but only a sluggish recovery thereafter at the end of 2023 and in 2024.
German economy in recession: not deep, but the worst is yet to come
The German economy continues to face fierce headwinds from the energy crisis, high inflation rates, and the cooling global economy.
What caught my eye: The US-China trade conflict, workers and commuting, climate scenarios for central banks, and much more…
As always when Chad Bown publishes a piece, I can only recommend it!
U.S. economy: Surprisingly robust development with inflation still high
Recession, yes or no? Many economists have been pondering this question.