Author Archives: EBECON

The resilience of the global economy is tested.

Supply chain uncertainty

In November, U.S. inflation was somewhat lower than expected (2.7% compared with November 2024). It will be interesting to see whether the downward trend continues in January. For the moment, caution is warranted. The government shutdown directly affected data collection and economic indicators. Currently, it’s challenging to accurately interpret the U.S. economy. The BLS report willContinue reading “What caught my eye: U.S. inflation, artificial intelligence and education, the chip landscape, and much more… “

The US economy is currently experiencing significant challenges. Despite these challenges, it has performed surprisingly well given the high uncertainty regarding tariff policies, and also actually higher tariffs. However, we expect what we call a mild stagflationary episode, in which meager economic growth and somewhat elevated inflation will occur together. Due to the shutdown in the U.S.,Continue reading “US Economy – Surprisingly robust, but the labor market has cooled”

Highly recommended! “Knowledge, technology, and growth: Joel Mokyr, Nobel laureate” by Ran Abramitzky and Mauricio Drelichman. “One core message of this extensive body of research is particularly timely: economic progress is critically dependent on open intellectual inquiry, on the free exchange of ideas, and on a vigorous defence of scientific principles.” Highly interesting (and potentiallyContinue reading “What caught my eye: Knowledge and growth, factories of ideas, and much more…”

Average annual GDP growth will be modest in 2025 and 2026.

“Unbalanced Trade 2.0” by Alejandro Cuñat and Robert Zymek. “Do trade imbalances boost incomes in surplus economies at the expense of deficit economies? We show that the answer is yes in an important subclass of quantitative trade models. This is the consequence of scale economies concentrated in the traded sector. A rise in net exports causesContinue reading “What caught my eye: Uncertainty and risks in monetary policy, a research agenda for the economics of transformative AI, and much more…”