Author Archives: EBECON

What moved markets: The Democratic sweep in the U.S. midterms lowered oil and Treasury yields on hopes of fiscal restraint and Middle East de-escalation, but also raised concern about tighter AI regulation. A technology sell-off spread from Wall Street to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan before a partial Friday rebound. What did not: Europe wasContinue reading “Eagle Letter: Midterm elections, oil prices, bond yields, and much more…”

What caught our eye

Central banks delivered a clear message this week.

Oil and long-term interest rates again dominated markets and macroeconomic developments

Oil, bond yields, and a reassessment of the AI outlook dominated Monday’s markets.

Oil, inflation and interest-rate expectations were crucial for global markets. Brent crude moved above $100 a barrel. The weekly rise of more than 8% implies a renewed supply shock. United States: Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier. Gasoline increased 3.9% in the month and energy 2.1%. Core inflation wasContinue reading “Eagle Letter: Oil prices, ECB meeting, and much more…”

Persistent inflation, high oil prices and concern about public debt pushed long-term yields higher.

US inflation moderated, but consumer spending and confidence weakened while oil remained expensive. That combination reduced the immediate case for a Federal Reserve rate increase, yet it also revived concern that growth could slow before inflation has fully returned to target.

“Leading AI developers increasingly describe a transition in which models help accelerate their own improvement.”

In the United States, employment fell by 23,000 in July.