Author Archives: EBECON

Central banks delivered a clear message this week.

Oil and long-term interest rates again dominated markets and macroeconomic developments

Oil, bond yields, and a reassessment of the AI outlook dominated Monday’s markets.

Oil, inflation and interest-rate expectations were crucial for global markets. Brent crude moved above $100 a barrel. The weekly rise of more than 8% implies a renewed supply shock. United States: Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier. Gasoline increased 3.9% in the month and energy 2.1%. Core inflation wasContinue reading “Eagle Letter: Oil prices, ECB meeting, and much more…”

Persistent inflation, high oil prices and concern about public debt pushed long-term yields higher.

US inflation moderated, but consumer spending and confidence weakened while oil remained expensive. That combination reduced the immediate case for a Federal Reserve rate increase, yet it also revived concern that growth could slow before inflation has fully returned to target.

“Leading AI developers increasingly describe a transition in which models help accelerate their own improvement.”

In the United States, employment fell by 23,000 in July.

Three major central bank decisions and four large companies reporting.

Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter, down from 2.1%