Global trade tracker: This dataset monitors goods-trade developments among major economies in the wake of the 2025 US tariff hikes
“The Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets” by Mohamed A. El-Erian.
“The plunge in oil prices over the past week has translated into tangible relief for US households. The nationwide average price for regular gas dipped below $4 a gallon for the first time in over three months, and diesel is expected to fall below $5 in the coming days, even as long-standing regional differences persist. (On Sunday, the nationwide averages stood at $3.94 and 5.04, respectively.)”
Will the Fed hike rates in July?
Super interesting!
“The (Re)Anchoring of US Firms’ Inflation Expectations” by Alexander Cline, Christian Garciga, Ina Hajdini, Timo Reinelt, and Robert W. Rich.
“This Economic Commentary studies the degree of anchoring of US firms’ inflation expectations from 2018 to 2025 by leveraging a novel survey of firms’ medium-term inflation expectations and their subjective perceptions of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) inflation objective. We capture unanchoring by measuring disagreement across firms’ expectations and the misalignment between the mean of firms’ expectations and the FOMC’s inflation objective. Based on our measure, the anchoring of firms’ medium-term inflation expectations weakened significantly during the pandemic inflation surge, driven largely by an increase in disagreement but also by firms’ subjective perceptions of the FOMC’s inflation objective’s temporarily deviating from 2 percent. While we find anchoring has significantly strengthened since 2022, it remained somewhat weaker during 2025 than the prepandemic average.”
What Happens to the Brain Under Anesthesia by Molly McDonough.
William Dalrymple: the enchanting Italian island with echoes of a lost civilisation: On Panarea, the smallest of the Aeolian Islands, the historian finds fresh fish, elegant villas — and traces of an ancient society