U.S. monetary policy: The Fed is expected to keep interest rates constant on July 29
PIIE — El Niño Could Drag Down the Global Economy by Almost $700 Billion—or $3 Trillion
Peterson Institute for International Economics | Blog | July 20, 2026
The analysis estimates a first-year global loss of about $686 billion and a five-year loss of roughly $3.1 trillion from a severe El Niño. The largest proportional effects fall on lower- and middle-income economies through harvest failures, food imports, damaged infrastructure and lost investment. Pre-positioned concessional finance and food aid would turn climate preparedness into macroeconomic stabilization.
IEA — Global Electricity Demand Growth Set to Accelerate
International Energy Agency | Electricity Mid-Year Update | July 23, 2026
The IEA forecasts electricity-demand growth of 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027, driven by industry, cooling, electric vehicles and data centers. Renewables are set to overtake coal as the largest global source of generation in 2026, yet high LNG prices have also encouraged coal switching. More frequent negative prices and wider intraday swings reveal an urgent need for storage, grids and demand flexibility.
Reaction to U.S. Tariffs on 60 Trading Partners
Reuters | July 24, 2026
Officials from Europe, Australia, Brazil, Mexico and Southeast Asia responded differently to the new U.S. tariffs, reflecting varying exposure, exemptions and prior agreements. Brazil signaled possible recourse to domestic retaliation instruments and the WTO, while others emphasized negotiation. A common concern is that legal and policy uncertainty itself discourages trade and investment.
IMF Blog — The Oil Market Absorbed the War Shock, but Buffers Are Running Low
International Monetary Fund | Blog | July 15, 2026
Oil-market flexibility, inventories and policy action helped absorb an abrupt disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but those buffers are being depleted. The analysis turns a geopolitical event into a medium-term macro question: prolonged prices near $90–100 would transmit through inflation, external balances and fiscal costs, especially in energy-importing economies.
S&P Global — Flash PMIs Signal Faster Growth Across Major Developed Economies
S&P Global Market Intelligence | Survey data | July 24, 2026
Flash PMIs point to the strongest G4 business-activity growth in eight months, with improvement across the United States, euro area, United Kingdom and Japan. The composition is less comfortable: U.S. price pressures are the strongest of the group and supply-chain concerns are returning. Because most responses predate the latest oil move, the survey may understate the emerging cost shock.
IMF — 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil
International Monetary Fund | Article IV consultation | July 23, 2026
The IMF expects Brazilian growth of 2.4% in 2026 and about 2.5% over the medium term, supported by favorable oil terms of trade, normalization of monetary policy and the 2023 VAT reform. Brazil’s renewable-heavy electricity mix and net-oil-exporter status provide unusual protection from the global energy shock. The structural challenge is to save part of the windfall, reduce public debt and preserve room for productive and social investment.